ALFAwetlands applies different models and one of them is GLOBIOM, the Global Biosphere Management Model.
The European Commission’s impact assessments of the Fit for 55 reform and the 2040 climate target outline clear pathways to achieve climate neutrality in the EU27 by 2050, a goal adopted by the European Union. These assessments emphasize that contributions from all sectors are essential to meet this ambitious target.
Rewetting in the EU Climate Strategy
Among these, the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector stands out as unique, being the only sector inherently capable of generating a carbon sink. However, the sector also faces challenges. Among them:
- carbon removals in the forest sector have been decreasing in recent years
- agriculture on drained organic soils, while covering only a small fraction of Europe’s agricultural land, continues to be a significant source of CO₂ emissions.
Thus, the impact assessments identify the reduction of emissions from drained organic soils through rewetting as one important puzzle piece of the EU’s climate strategy, which has also been confirmed by other studies1. Furthermore, rewetting drained organic soils not only mitigates emissions but also complements other sectoral efforts such as improving conditions for biodiversity improvements.
However, rewetting of agricultural land can present significant challenges for the affected regions, businesses, and individuals involved. To overcome these hurdles and ensure the ambitious targets are achievable, it is essential to couple these efforts with the creation of economic opportunities or compensation payments.
GLOBIOM ALFAwetlands model
The IIASA and ALFAwetlands model GLOBIOM, has been part of the suite of models applied for the official impact assessments conducted by the European Commission (Figure 1). The model was specifically used to analyse and calculate emissions and removals within the LULUCF sector. The inclusion was critical for ensuring a detailed and robust understanding of the sector’s dynamics, enabling policymakers to design effective strategies for achieving climate targets.
GLOBIOM is a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model of the forest and agricultural sectors. The model is based on a bottom-up approach where the supply side of the model is built-up from the bottom (land cover, land use, management systems) to the top (production/markets). The agricultural and forest productivity is modelled spatially explicit through links to biophysical models (crop models, forest growth models etc.) for different production systems. In addition, the model computes a market equilibrium for agricultural and forest products by allocating land use among production activities. This helps to maximize the sum of producer and consumer surplus, subject to resource, technological, demand, and policy constraints.
Holistic approach
GLOBIOM also includes a module for rewetting drained organic soils which are currently used in agriculture, as a mitigation option. The technical implementation relies on the United Nations Climate Change Conference (2023) National Inventory Submissions and for the spatial allocation of areas on information from the CAPRI model(Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System). The rewetting decision depends on a comparison of the respective opportunity costs of farming in a specific NUTS2 region plus conversion costs with a monetary value occurring from a carbon price that can be implemented in the model.
In ALFAwetlands, we will build on the existing rewetting module within the GLOBIOM model and refine the underlying data and its functioning. This work includes:
- updating the underlying data to the latest available version of the European Wetland Map, which is developed within ALFAwetlands Work Package1
- refining spatially explicit emission factors from ALFAwetlands Work Package WP4
- implementing new management systems such as partial rewetting
- developing scenarios that highlight the significance of the rewetting potential in comparison to other LULUCF measures (Work Package 5).
Additionally, we will update cost estimates to ensure a more accurate representation of economic factors in cooperation with Work Package 5. Furthermore, the analysis will focus on identifying potential barriers and exploring measures that could help unlock and realize this potential effectively.
1 Agora Agriculture (2024): Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU. The land use sectors as part of a sustainable food system and bioeconomy.